Smartphone Sales Growth Slows Amidst Global Uncertainty

05/30/2025 Phones

A recent report from a leading global market intelligence firm has significantly lowered its forecast for global smartphone sales growth in 2025. The revised projection points to a mere 0.6% increase, reaching 1.24 billion units, a substantial drop from earlier predictions. This downward revision primarily stems from the ongoing economic uncertainty fueled by U.S. tariffs and their impact on the industry.

The report further anticipates sluggish growth for the next five years, averaging a modest 1.4% annually. This subdued outlook is attributed to several factors, including consumers holding onto their existing devices for longer periods and a rising preference for refurbished smartphones as a more budget-friendly option.

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Dynamics

Despite the trade tensions between the U.S. and China, both nations are projected to remain the primary drivers of the limited growth. However, the report highlights a potential 1.9% decline in Apple's sales in China, as Huawei is expected to gain market share, boosted by government initiatives.

The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs presents a significant challenge for smartphone manufacturers. The threat of increased tariffs on phones manufactured outside the U.S. adds complexity to the global supply chain. However, recent legal rulings have cast some doubt on the future of these tariffs.

While the U.S. market is expected to see growth (1.9%), the ongoing trade war continues to dampen the overall growth prospects and increases the price of products due to tariffs.

In response to these challenges, India and Vietnam are positioned to become increasingly important alternatives to China in smartphone manufacturing.